low-probability, high-impact outcomes

There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…

LOW PROBABILITY HIGH IMPACT RISKS AS A SOURCE OF SUCCESS: THE CHALLENGE OF RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT – Global X-Network

Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social on X: Low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes could occur at global and regional scales even for global warming within the very likely range for a given greenhouse emissions scenario. The

Solved Using the probability/impact matrix below, identify 2

Electricity, Free Full-Text

Monte Carlo Simulation: History, How it Works, and 4 Key Steps

Impact and Probability in Risk Assessment - apppm

Impact and Probability in Risk Assessment - apppm

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

a) Probability-Impact matrix and (b) Probabilistic and utility theory