Elo Rating System: how underrated are the kids?

An interesting phenomenon of the ELO rating system is that when examining game outcomes for a group of lower rated players, higher rated players tend to underperform relative to the theoretical ELO probability, and lower-rated players overperform. What are the causal factors explaining the inability of the ELO system to predict results? <a href="[Post:view_link]">A study by Ganesh Viswanath.</a>

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On the probability of Magnus Carlsen reaching 2900 - Bendre - 2023 - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry - Wiley Online Library

On the probability of Magnus Carlsen reaching 2900 - Bendre - 2023 - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry - Wiley Online Library

Are Elo ratings going down?