Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]

Background Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

Disentangling the contemporary and historical effects of landscape on the population genomic variation of two bird species restricted to the highland forest enclaves of northeastern Brazil

Comparative phylogeographic and demographic analyses reveal a congruent pattern of sister relationships between bird populations of the northern and south-central Atlantic Forest - ScienceDirect

Predicting the future of threatened birds from a Neotropical ecotone area

Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]

Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

Comparative phylogeographic and demographic analyses reveal a congruent pattern of sister relationships between bird populations of the northern and south-central Atlantic Forest - ScienceDirect

Climate change is expected to restructure forest frugivorous bird communities in a biodiversity hot‐point within the Atlantic Forest - Mota - 2022 - Diversity and Distributions - Wiley Online Library

Biodiversity conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas. - Abstract - Europe PMC

PDF) Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil